Wednesday, 11 July 2018

GDP


In 2004, Lord Clark of Kempston died aged 86. “Lord who of where?” you might be forgiven for asking. 
I recall attending a social event back in the 80s where Sir William – as he was then – and his wife Lady Clark were in attendance. He seemed a kindly grandfather-type figure, and she was equally amiable. I remember that his dinner suit trousers were too short; not something you would expect from a man of his calibre. Looks, however, can deceive.
Sir William was, in reality, a very tough man and a shrewd politician. The Member of Parliament for Croydon South, he rose up through the political ranks to hold several key positions. He epitomised the era of ‘The Iron Lady’, Britain’s first woman Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and was not afraid of being confrontational when standing his ground in the House of Commons. He championed the austere economics of monetarism, and notably became the chairman of the Conservative parliamentary finance committee (1979-92), which was an important position in which he became very influential. He was created a life peer in 1992. 
However, it is 1988 to which I wish to refer; specifically November 29th. During a House of Commons economic debate, at a time when the UK’s economic performance was in question, Sir William stated, ‘We take our economic pulse too frequently. Whenever an economic figure is produced we take the pulse and hear gloom and doom.’ Move forwards to 2018 and we turn this statement on its head.
It was reported yesterday that UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is to be published monthly for 'higher-quality' figures. The Guardian newspaper of July 8th reported, ‘Britain will this week become one of the first major developed economies in the world to publish economic growth figures on a monthly basis. Starting from Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics will produce estimates for the monthly growth in gross domestic product (GDP) alongside a range of other statistical indicators for the health of the British economy’.



GDP is held as being one of the best measures available for assessing the wealth of the country and the living standards of people in the UK, but it is not fool proof by any means. GDP is calculated by adding together:

  • The money spent on goods and services across Britain, less the value of imports, plus the value of exports;
  • The money earned through wages and profits;
  • The total value of all goods and services produced in the UK.
 
Under the old system estimates for GDP were published once every quarter, so the new approach is a distinct improvement, as politicians and central bankers operating in the current volatile economic environment need to know what is happening to the economy in real time to facilitate good decision-making.
However Garry Young, the director of macroeconomic modelling and forecasting at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said. “A downside of the new monthly data is that it will be volatile, subject to revision and may sometimes give a misleading steer. That means that policymakers and other users will need to make sure they do not overreact to the latest data, unless it is confirmed by a range of other evidence.”
I wonder what Sir William would have made of this? The ability to understanding the workings of the economy have taken on a new significance since the financial crisis of 2007, and as Britain prepares to leave the EU. Better quality, more-timely official data has never been so necessary to our economic well-being.
This is just one of the subject areas debated passionately by ECBM students during their study programmes, drilling down critically in to the depths of this fascinating world, and priming themselves for the future which faces them in their careers. 
What is your opinion on this economic development? Do come and share it with us.

Monday, 11 June 2018

Evolution

It started with a hole in the ground. On a very hot day in May three workman braved the noise and dust of their drills and were digging up the paved area beside ECBM. Was it to replace a gas pipe? Or to mend an electrical cable? Who knows?

Well there my interest ended because, as anyone who lives in London knows, there is often something being dug up or filled in. However, even though such things are common place, in 1962 comedy performer Bernard Cribbins recorded a comedy song called ‘Hole in the Ground’ and it went to 9th position in the charts, so maybe there is more to digging and filling holes than we might imagine. Here is a snippet:
“Don't dig there, dig it elsewhere, you’re digging it round and it ought to be square. The shape it's wrong, and it's much too long, and you can't put a hole where a hole don't belong.”

Moving forwards a day or two, the workman had built a triangular concrete platform in the hole, and surrounded it with a low block wall. Curious! “It’s for a sign” one of them told me. He couldn’t tell me what kind of sign, but a sign none the less, and all he knew was that he should build a triangular base.

Fast forward to this week. Mystery solved? Well not quite. The sign was now up: a green triangular metal cage somewhat like those triangular chocolate bars you see in airport shops. “They’re going to grow ivy up it” one of the workmen told me, and sure enough ivy was planted. And then, on all three sides of the cage were the letters ‘LEN’; large, bright blue and three-dimensional.

LEN? What’s LEN? The mystery had deepened; but it didn’t last long as Google had the answer, and just when I was beginning to enjoy the intrigue!

LEN means 'Low Emission Neighbourhood'. It’s all about new schemes that are being developed to make parts of London greener, cleaner and nicer. It is supported by the Mayor of London as a kind of blueprint for future town and city planning. Evolution is at work in Shoreditch which will make it a better place to live, work and have fun.

If you follow this link you can see exactly what is happening here – and importantly not just being talked about – and how already it is changing the quality of our lives. https://zeroemissionsnetwork.com/len


When I grew up on the grimy, uninteresting Shoreditch streets of the 60s and 70s I could never have guessed that one day those same streets would be home to imaginative retail businesses, great food and drink outlets, streets brightly painted and planted, and an atmosphere or youthful optimism. That is the wonder of our futures: there is so much yet to discover.

Evolution is fresh and exciting, whether it is on the streets or in the classroom. I live with evolution every day, in the positive atmosphere of my evolutionary students. Come and evolve with us – it’s great!

Wednesday, 14 March 2018

Dreams

Let me share a bit of fanciful imagery with you.

I’m sitting here wishing I had a large teaspoon. A really large teaspoon. One with a long handle. A very, very long handle. So long that I could reach the clouds above London, letting me stir them like the cream in my coffee. They look creamy you see. They do look so inviting. Swirling away above me all creamy and soft. Or maybe it’s my brain that’s getting creamy and soft!

Okay then, what is the point of all this? Dreams. That’s my point. Dreams.

In 1949 Richard Rodgers and Oscar Hammerstein II wrote the highly successful musical ‘South Pacific’, which included the popular song ‘Happy Talk’. Some of the words are as fanciful as mine. For example, ‘Talk about a star looking like a toy, peeking through the branches of a tree. Talk about a girl, talk about a boy, counting all the ripples on the sea’. However one line for me is poignant: ‘You gotta have a dream, if you don't have a dream, how you gonna have a dream come true?

So I’m putting that question to you, ‘how you gonna have a dream come true?’

I remember some years ago passionately delivering a well-known line from Shakespeare’s ‘Scottish play’, “Is this a dagger which I see before me, the handle toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee”. “No” said my wife, “It’s the bread knife. Now sit down and finish your Cornflakes!” Well I guess it’s all a matter of how you look at things. So how then do you look at your dreams? 

Do you see dreams as wasteful wanderings of the mind, or do you re-frame your dreams as strategic visions? “Vision, mission and objectives” I tell my Business Strategy students. A company should first have a strategic vision of the future, then create a mission statement which strategically unifies the workforce, and then set the strategic objectives which will turn the vision in to reality, delivering strategic success. 

Dreams. Visions. Strategies.

I’m sure you have many dreams, strategic dreams. At the ECBM our passion is to contribute to making these dreams come true. Now if you’ll excuse me, my coffee is getting cold. "Has anyone seen the cream?”
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